Two Charts Beat as One
There are two trends reshaping the American retail and dining landscape, captured in two revealing charts. Together, they tell a powerful story about restaurants' growing centrality to our economy and society.
The first chart shows the steady march toward food consumed away from home. In 1995, Americans spent more on food at home than away. By 2023, that ratio had flipped dramatically - 58% of food dollars are now spent away from home, projected to reach 61% by 2030. This isn't just a slight preference shift; it represents a fundamental restructuring of how Americans eat. Today, a record 55.7% of total food budgets go to restaurants and food service, versus 44.3% on groceries - the largest gap ever recorded.
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The second chart tracks the percentage of new retail leases by business type. Food service tenants now account for 19.1% of all new retail leases - the highest of any category and a meaningful increase from 16.6% in 2016. That means nearly one in five new retail spaces is dedicated to food service, reflecting restaurants' growing role as anchor tenants in modern retail developments. Some landlords now command up to 10% higher rents for restaurant tenants in prime locations, recognizing their unique ability to drive foot traffic and create vibrant spaces.
These charts are two sides of the same coin, telling a larger story about restaurants' essential role in modern society. The industry now contributes $1.4 trillion directly to the U.S. economy, with total economic impact reaching $3.5 trillion when including indirect effects - a staggering 15.6% of GDP. Restaurants employ one in ten American workers, making food service the second-largest private sector employer after healthcare.
But why are these trends accelerating now? The rise in food away from home reflects several forces: urbanization, smaller living spaces with smaller kitchens, the normalization of dining out as a regular activity rather than a special occasion, and changing work patterns that make convenience more valuable than ever. The pandemic, rather than reversing this trend, seems to have accelerated it through the explosion of delivery and takeout options.
Meanwhile, the growing share of food service in retail leases speaks to another reality: restaurants have become one of the few retail categories relatively insulated from e-commerce disruption. You can't download dinner (at least not yet). While traditional retail struggles with online competition, restaurants provide something that can't be replicated digitally: experience, atmosphere, and human connection.
This is particularly relevant as cities grapple with post-pandemic recovery and the future of downtown areas. As remote work reshapes office occupancy, restaurants are increasingly seen as anchors that can drive foot traffic and create vibrant neighborhoods. They're not just places to eat; they're community gathering spaces that generate the kind of sustained activity that keeps urban areas alive.
Looking ahead, these charts suggest that restaurants will only become more vital to our cities and communities. The question isn't whether restaurants will remain central to American life - these trends make that clear. The question is how we ensure this essential industry remains viable and vibrant as it carries this growing responsibility.
The synchronous rise shown in these two charts isn't just about food or retail - it's about how we live now. Restaurants aren't just filling spaces in our shopping centers or our stomachs; they're filling a fundamental human need for connection and community in an increasingly digital world. That's a trend that seems likely to continue beating strong.
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