Wonder Acquires Grubhub
I think I got some of this right
Back in May I wrote a (fake) email to the CEOs of Uber and Doordash about the threat of Marc Lore’s Wonder. I positioned Wonder as the "Albanian army" poised to disrupt food delivery. I feel both SEEN and UNSEEN after reading today's news of Wonder's $650M acquisition of Grubhub. Seen because I think I got some of it right. Unseen for more literal reasons; the piece was seen all of 547 times.
Let's unpack what I got directionally right: Wonder, under Marc Lore, is indeed building something wildly/inspiringly and FRIGHTENINGLY audacious. Lore is trying to create an end-to-end food platform that, in conjunction with a company like Amazon, could impact the entire food system. The Grubhub acquisition seriously accelerates this vision. I believe it also brings Lore and Wonder a few steps closer to Amazon.
But here's where it gets more interesting – and concerning. Grubhub currently has a significant strategic partnership with Amazon, and untangling that relationship will be fascinating to watch. Which brings me to some further speculation. Could this deal be part of a longer-term regulatory arbitrage play?
In today's regulatory environment, particularly with Lina Khan's FTC, a direct Amazon acquisition of Grubhub would likely face intense scrutiny. But what if this is just an intermediate step? Wonder acquires Grubhub now, continues building its platform through 2027 (their stated IPO target), and then... let's just say the future administration might view consolidation differently.
The stakes here are enormous. The restaurant industry represents a trillion-dollar market that Amazon, despite a lot of tries, hasn't figured out how to crack. If Wonder can build the infrastructure to efficiently move food while maintaining quality and experience – whether through delivery, meal kits, or physical locations in a wholly integrated way…LOOK OUT.
I'll keep connecting dots and sharing thoughts as this unfolds. And yes, Dara and Tony, I’m still here if you guys wanna chat about anything.